Modeling the Socioeconomic Factors Impact on Household Trip Production for Baghdad

Saad Issa Sarsam

doi:10.3759/ttea.v2i3.2832

Abstract

In Baghdad, the number of vehicles has increased more than two folds after 2003. The land use in many sectors has changed and expansions of residential zone are noticeable at other sectors while the restrictions on car ownership and commerce are nil. The restrictions on using many streets due to security issues cause a huge traffic jam among the whole network. It was felt that revision to the transportation policies is vital. The first step in such revision is a comprehensive study on trip production; mode choice and modeling of trip production which follows an intensive data collection. The specific objectives of this work are to obtain accurate and detailed information on travel characteristics of household wherever possible in Al- Karkh side of Baghdad urban area, and formulate statistical models to replicate the information on demography and socio economic parameters. Traditional method to forecast the trip volume according to trip rate, based on family type is proposed. Families are classified by three characteristics of population, social class, income, and number of vehicle ownership. The study area was divided into 10 zones based on the administrative divisions. A questionnaire is designed and interviews are implemented for data collection from selected zones at Baghdad city. Three statistical models were developed using stepwise regression software, (Total person trips per household model, Home-based work trip model, and Home-based education trip model). All the predicted models are applicable for the study area sectors only and in the survey data limitations.