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2 articles for “Ward-level surveillance”
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A SEIR-Informed Stacked Fusion of Prophet, XGBoost, and LSTM for Ward-Level Epidemic Forecasting in Amravati Municipal Corporation
Abstract: Municipal epidemic preparedness depends on accurate short-horizon forecasts at fine spatial granularity. Ward-level incidence series are typically nonstationary due to changing contact patterns, interventions, reporting delays, and heterogeneous demographic and environmental factors. This paper presents a mathematically formulated hybrid forecasting architecture designed for Amravati Municipal Corporation (AMC). The method decomposes observed incidence into (i) a mechanistic SEIR baseline that enforces epidemiological structure and (ii) a data-driven residual learned using Prophet …
Published in Research & Reviews: Discrete Mathematical Structures · Vol. 13, Issue 1, 2026 · pp. 17–23 Read article
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A Threshold-Weighted Mathematical Fusion Model for Epidemic Outbreak Prediction Using SEIR Residual Dynamics and Cloud-Based Machine Learning
Abstract: Accurate prediction of epidemic outbreaks is critical for effective public health management, resource planning, early warning generation, and timely intervention by municipal authorities. Traditional compartmental models such as Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) offer valuable epidemiological insights and mathematical interpretability; however, they may not adequately capture the complex nonlinear relationships present in real-world urban health systems. Conversely, data-driven machine learning techniques can identify hidden patterns in large datasets but often lack epidemiological structure …
Published in Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics · Vol. 15, Issue 2, 2026 · pp. 12–19 Read article