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7 articles for “Epidemic forecasting”
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A SEIR-Informed Stacked Fusion of Prophet, XGBoost, and LSTM for Ward-Level Epidemic Forecasting in Amravati Municipal Corporation
Abstract: Municipal epidemic preparedness depends on accurate short-horizon forecasts at fine spatial granularity. Ward-level incidence series are typically nonstationary due to changing contact patterns, interventions, reporting delays, and heterogeneous demographic and environmental factors. This paper presents a mathematically formulated hybrid forecasting architecture designed for Amravati Municipal Corporation (AMC). The method decomposes observed incidence into (i) a mechanistic SEIR baseline that enforces epidemiological structure and (ii) a data-driven residual learned using Prophet …
Published in Research & Reviews: Discrete Mathematical Structures · Vol. 13, Issue 1, 2026 · pp. 17–23 Read article
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A Hybrid Mathematical Model for Epidemic Outbreak Forecasting Using Machine Learning and Cloud Computing
Abstract: The increasing frequency of infectious disease outbreaks has emphasized the necessity for intelligent epidemic surveillance systems capable of predicting disease spread at an early stage. Conventional outbreak detection approaches rely heavily on delayed statistical reporting and manual monitoring techniques, resulting in reduced responsiveness during critical periods. This paper presents a mathematical predictive framework for epidemic outbreak detection using machine learning and cloud computing technologies. The proposed framework integrates the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered …
Published in Research & Reviews: Discrete Mathematical Structures · Vol. 13, Issue 2, 2026 · pp. 01–06 Read article
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Mathematical Modeling of Epidemics Using Stochastic Differential Equations: A Review
Abstract: The accurate modeling of infectious disease dynamics is crucial for predicting outbreaks and informing public health interventions. While deterministic models such as the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) framework have traditionally been used to understand disease transmission, they often fail to account for the randomness inherent in real-world scenarios. Disease spread is influenced by numerous uncertain factors, including individual behavioral changes, environmental fluctuations, and imperfect data reporting. These uncertainties can significantly impact model …
Published in Recent Trends in Mathematics · Vol. 1, Issue 2, 2024 · pp. 1–6 Read article
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A Threshold-Weighted Mathematical Fusion Model for Epidemic Outbreak Prediction Using SEIR Residual Dynamics and Cloud-Based Machine Learning
Abstract: Accurate prediction of epidemic outbreaks is critical for effective public health management, resource planning, early warning generation, and timely intervention by municipal authorities. Traditional compartmental models such as Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) offer valuable epidemiological insights and mathematical interpretability; however, they may not adequately capture the complex nonlinear relationships present in real-world urban health systems. Conversely, data-driven machine learning techniques can identify hidden patterns in large datasets but often lack epidemiological structure …
Published in Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics · Vol. 15, Issue 2, 2026 · pp. 12–19 Read article
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Epidemiology and transmission of infectious diseases study using Machine learning
Abstract: Infectious diseases remain a formidable global health challenge, characterized by rapid evolution and complex transmission dynamics that often outpace traditional epidemiological surveillance and response mechanisms. This study investigates the transformative potential of machine learning (ML) methodologies to enhance our understanding and prediction of infectious disease epidemiology and transmission. Leveraging diverse datasets—including clinical records, genomic sequences, environmental factors, social mobility data, and real-time digital footprints—we studies and presented various ML models …
Published in International Journal of Pathogens · Vol. 2, Issue 2, 2025 Read article
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Time Series Forecasting Based on PyAF and fbProphet
Abstract: Time series forecasting is the technique of predicting future events using previous data. Time series data includes information that is collected and recorded at regular intervals, such as daily stock prices, monthly sales figures, or hourly temperature readings. The purpose of time series forecasting is to use previous data to create accurate forecasts about the future values of a given variable. This can be beneficial for a range of applications, …
Published in International Journal of Information Security Engineering · Vol. 1, Issue 1, 2023 · pp. 32–36 Read article
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Forecasting Climate-Driven Healthcare Demand in Agricultural Regions: A Multi-Modal AI Approach
Abstract: The rapidly increasing instability of world climatic regimes has made past meteorological thresholds irrelevant, especially in the agricultural areas where monetary stability and well-being of humans are closely intertwined with an environmental situation. The more the frequency of 1 in every 1000-year events, i.e., heatwaves and catastrophic flooding increase, the greater the rural healthcare systems are in crisis, i.e., unable to predict a surge in demand because of data scarcity, …
Published in International Journal of Climate Conditions · Vol. 2, Issue 2, 2025 · pp. 28–38 Read article