Ward-level surveillance
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A SEIR-Informed Stacked Fusion of Prophet, XGBoost, and LSTM for Ward-Level Epidemic Forecasting in Amravati Municipal Corporation
Abstract: Municipal epidemic preparedness depends on accurate short-horizon forecasts at fine spatial granularity. Ward-level incidence series are typically nonstationary due to changing contact patterns, interventions, reporting delays, and heterogeneous demographic and environmental factors. This paper presents a mathematically formulated hybrid forecasting architecture designed for Amravati Municipal Corporation (AMC). The method decomposes observed incidence into (i) a mechanistic SEIR baseline that enforces epidemiological structure and (ii) a data-driven residual learned using Prophet …
Published in Research & Reviews: Discrete Mathematical Structures · Vol. 13, Issue 1, 2026 · pp. 17–23 Read article