STM Journals Peer-reviewed research from Consortium e-Learning Network

Journal of Production Research & Management

Demand Forecasting for Seasonal Demand Patterns: Case Study of a Pharmaceutical Company

  1. Md. Mamunur Rahman
  2. Sudipa Sarker

Abstract

In this paper the authors have developed a heuristic model that addresses demand forecasting for products those follow seasonal patterns. The model is checked against various renowned forecasting methods by comparing forecast errors. The proposed heuristic model is found to give better results than the Winters’ and other exponential models. Non-linear optimization is used to choose the values of smoothing parameters rather than depending on human judgment or experience. This paper also focuses the role of control chart, and tracking signal to analyze biases and trend of forecast errors that justifies the appropriateness of the applied forecasting model.

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