Applicability of Integrating BN and Resilience Engineering on Qualitative to Quantitative Description of Human Error

Ahmad Bahoo Toroody; Ahmad Reza Talaee; Mohammadmahdy Abaiee; Reza Gholamnia

Abstract

Human activities are predominant part of everyday tasks from design, cAbstract Human activities are predominant part of everyday tasks from design, construction, operation, management, maintenance, system upgrade, medical and social life as well as individual human performance. It is not surprising then to see that a major means of failures are related to human errors. But there is still lack of heeds to qualify as well as quantify such errors. Present study is aimedto highlight the importance of paying attention to qualitative methods in implementing quantitative risk analyses in order to estimate more accurate human error probability (HEP). To do this, functional resonance analysis method (FRAM), a strong qualifying tool, is applied to develop high risk accident scenario by considering non-linear socio-technical interaction in system. Bayesian network (BN) is qualitatively coupled with FRAM network to present a better interpretation of provided resonance. Noisy OR-Gate model (NOGM) is applied to update primary HEP which is calculated for each activity using the success likelihood index method (SLIM) based on proposed resonance that is carried out in FRAM network. BN is also used to depict the effect of variables on one another. The results show that second and third resonance variables have the most changes in the light of evidences. The developed methodology has been applied to a case study of an offshore lifting operation. Keywords: Human error probability, resonance, FRAM, noisy OR-Gate model, Bayesian networkCite this Article Ahmad BahooToroody, Ahmad Reza Talaee, MohammadmahdyAbaiee, et al. Applicability of Integrating BN and Resilience Engineering on Qualitative to Quantitative Description of Human Error. Journal of Offshore Structure and Technology.2016; 3(2): 6–16p.