STM Journals Peer-reviewed research from Consortium e-Learning Network

Journal of Industrial Safety Engineering

Time Series Model Forecasting of Boot using Holt, Winter and Decomposition Method

  1. Amrit Pal Singh
  2. Manoj Kumar Gaur
  3. Sharad Agrawal
  4. Dinesh Kumar Kasdekar

Abstract

In business scenario, sales forecasting is very essential due to volatile demand of products. Because of the uncertainty with demand and supply, forecasting of shoe industry is required. Normally retail sales series contains trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This study compares the application of three forecasting methods like Holt’s, winters and Decomposition method to forecast the sale of boot. Best method is selected on the basis of least value of mean square deviation (MSD). For this, store outlet sales data from a shoe industry are collected and data are analyzed by statistics technique using Minitab 17 software. It is found that the lowest error of MSD is obtained by winter’s method which is the measurement of this study.
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