STM Journals Peer-reviewed research from Consortium e-Learning Network

International Journal of Climate Conditions Original Research

Climate variability analysis over the state of Himachal Pradesh, India

  1. Priyanka Jattan Department of Environmental Science, Dr. YS Parmar University of Horticulture & Forestry, Nauni , Solan,
  2. Dr. Mohan Singh Jangra Department of Environmental Science, Dr. YS Parmar University of Horticulture & Forestry, Nauni, Solan
  3. Dr. SK Bhardwaj Department of Environmental Science, Dr. YS Parmar University of Horticulture & Forestry, Nauni, Solan

Abstract

Longterm daily temperature and rainfall data (2000–2024) for thirty-five locations ranging from ~350 to >4000 m amsl were obtained from the NASA POWER database. The variability and trends in maximum, minimum temperature and rainfall were worked out by using different statistical tools and Mann-Kendal test trend analysis. The mean annual maximum temperature of the state was 20.3°C (CV = 3.9%), declining from 27.4°C in the low hills to 7.2°C at high elevations, and exhibited a consistent increasing trend, with comparatively higher warming rates at higher altitudes (~0.10°C yr⁻¹) than in the lower (~0.01°C yr⁻¹). Seasonal pooled summer and monsoon maximum temperatures were 22.7°C and 25.5°C, respectively, both showing positive trends. The variability in minimum temperature increased markedly to 21.0 % in the cold-desert belt compared with 3.5 % in the low hills, indicating that night-time temperatures are more sensitive to topographic and synoptic controls than daytime temperatures.Rainfall variability increased from 22.2 % in the mid-hills to 33.1 % above 2500 m, indicating highly unreliable moisture availability in the trans-Himalayan region.The expected outcomes of this research offer important benefits for farmers, planners and other stakeholders in Himalayan agriculture.

Keywords

References (30)

  1. Ahmed R, Shamim T, Bansal JK, Rather AF, Javaid S, Wani GF, et al. Assessing climate trends in the Northwestern Himalayas: a comprehensive analysis of high-resolution gridded and observed datasets. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk. 2024;15(1). doi:10.1080/19475705.2024.2401994
  2. Ahuja V, Pandey CP, Nandan H. Study of Annual Rainfall Patterns for North-Western Indian Himalayan Region. MAUSAM. 2025;76(4). doi:10.54302/mausam.v76i4.7109
  3. Biswas S, Singh C, Bharti V, Roy S, Singh R. Unfolding extreme rainfall events characteristics over the North-West Himalayan region based on recent GPM-IMERGV7 remotely sensed observations. Journal of Hydrology. 2025 Jun 1;654(9) :132823
  4. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132823 .
  5. Dash SK, Jenamani RK, Kalsi SR, Panda SK. Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Climatic change. 2007 Dec;85(3):299-321.
  6. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9305-9
  7. Dimri AP, Niyogi D, Barros AP, Ridley J, Mohanty UC, Yasunari T, Sikka DR. Western disturbances: a review. Reviews of Geophysics. 2015 Jun;53(2):225-46.
  8. doi:10.1002/2014RG000460 .
  9. Donat MG, Alexander LV, Yang H, Durre I, Vose R, Dunn RJ, Willett KM, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Caesar J, Hewitson B. Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research:
  10. Atmospheres. 2013 Mar 16;118(5):2098-118. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50150
  11. Dunn RJ, Alexander LV, Donat MG, Zhang X, Bador M, Herold N, Lippmann T, Allan R, Aguilar E, Barry AA, Brunet M. Development of an updated global land in situ‐based data set of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX3. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2020 Aug 27;125(16):e2019JD032263.
  12. Engdaw MM, Steiner AK, Hegerl GC, Ballinger AP. Attribution of observed changes in extreme temperatures to anthropogenic forcing using CMIP6 models. Weather and Climate Extremes. 2023;39:100548. doi:10.1016/j.wace.2023.100548
  13. Husain MA, Kumar P, Gonencgil B. Assessment of spatio-temporal land use/cover change and its effect on land surface temperature in Lahaul and Spiti, India.
  14. Land. 2023 Jun 27;12(7):1294. doi:10.3390/land12071294
  15. Pachauri RK, Allen MR, Barros VR, Broome J, Cramer W, Christ R, Church JA, Clarke L, Dahe Q, Dasgupta P, Dubash NK. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Ipcc; 2014.
  16. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
  17. Jain SK, Kumar V, Saharia M. Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in northeast India. International Journal of Climatology. 2013 Mar 30;33(4):968-78.
  18. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3483
  19. Jattan P, Singh M, Bhardwaj SK, Kumari N, Nikita. Variability and trend analysis of temperature in relation to crops in the mid-hills of Nauni, Himachal Pradesh. AATCC Review,2025;13(4):513–520.https://aatcc.peerjournals.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Variability-and-trend-analysis-of-temperature-in-relation-to-crops-in-the-mid-hills-of-Nauni-Himachal-Pradesh.pdf
  20. Kothawale DR, Rupa Kumar K. On the recent changes in surface temperature trends over India.Geophysical Research Letters. 2005 Sep 28;32(18).: L18714.
  21. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2005GL023528
  22. Kumar S, Rao KN, Kumar H. Exposure to Climatic Variability and Associated Hydro-Meteorological Hazards in Beas River Basin of Western Himalaya, India. Journal of Climate Change. 2025 Oct 31;11(3):328-344. https://cspub-jcc-submission.org/index.php/jcc/article/view/165/284
  23. Mehta P, Jangra MS, Bhardwaj SK, Paul S. Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall in the mid-hill sub humid zone: a case study of Nauni. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2022;29(53):80466-80476. doi:10.1007/s11356-022-21507-0
  24. Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nature Climate Change. 2015;5(5):424-430. doi:10.1038/nclimate2563
  25. Rahim A, Wang X, Javed N, Aziz F, Jahangir A, Khurshid T. Early 21st Century Trends of Temperature Extremes over the Northwest Himalayas. Atmosphere. 2023;14(3):454. doi:10.3390/atmos14030454
  26. R. S. RANA, R. M. BHAGAT, VAIBHAV KALIA. Impact of climate change on apple crop in Himachal Pradesh. Journal of Agrometeorology. 2011;13(2):97-103. doi:10.54386/jam.v13i2.1349
  27. Rangwala I, Miller JR. Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes. Climatic change. 2012 Oct;114(3):527-47.
  28. Praveen B, Sharma P. Climate variability and its impacts on agriculture production and future prediction using autoregressive integrated moving average method (ARIMA). Journal of Public Affairs. 2019;20(2). doi:10.1002/pa.2016
  29. Srivastava A, Kumar N, Mohapatra M. Unprecedented hot weather diagnosis in India during March-April 2022. Mausam. 2024 Apr 1;75(2):551-558.
  30. doi:10.54302/mausam.v75i2.6196