2 publications

• Published Subscription Review Article 10 Mar 2026

  A SEIR-Informed Stacked Fusion of Prophet, XGBoost, and LSTM for Ward-Level Epidemic Forecasting in Amravati Municipal Corporation

  By Narendra J. Padole, Nitin S. Shrirao, Manish L. Jivtode

  Abstract: Municipal epidemic preparedness depends on accurate short-horizon forecasts at fine spatial granularity. Ward-level incidence series are typically nonstationary due to changing contact patterns, interventions, reporting delays, and heterogeneous demographic and environmental factors. This paper presents a mathematically formulated hybrid forecasting architecture designed for Amravati Municipal Corporation (AMC). The method decomposes observed incidence into (i) a mechanistic SEIR baseline that enforces epidemiological structure and (ii) a data-driven residual learned using Prophet …

  Published in Research & Reviews: Discrete Mathematical Structures · Vol. 13, Issue 1, 2026 · pp. 17–23 Read article →

• Published Subscription Review Article 30 Jun 2025

  Mathematical Models for COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comparative Analysis

  By Narendra J. Padole, Vinod Ramteke, Manish L. Jivtode

  Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has really underlined the importance of mathematical modeling in understanding disease-spread dynamics and especially informing public health interventions. The paper aims to provide a comprehensive comparative analysis of various mathematical models used for COVID-19 studies, with a focus on assumptions underlying those models, strengths, and also the limitations in their applications as well as special focus is given to compartmental models, agent-based models, machine learning-enhanced models, and …

  Published in Recent Trends in Mathematics · Vol. 1, Issue 1, 2024 · pp. 42–53 Read article →